The Global Shutdown – Why Social Distancing Works To Stop Pandemics
Why these lockdowns are necessary.
Video is blog form below:
Simulation 1. Everyone is moving around as normal, transmission is happening really quickly and a huge number of people get sick simultaneously.
The problem with this strategy is that we’d be dealing with the exact same issues currently plaguing Northern Italy. Hospitals would be overrun completely, doctors can’t treat everyone, people with vulnerable immune systems get exposed and unnecessary deaths happen. Not a great plan.
Simulation 2. This is what happens if we keep borders open during a pandemic. We get an influx of cases and then cause clusters of community spread causing the issues I mentioned above. Closing the borders will prevent the importation of cases.
Simulation 3. This is simulating what happens when the government bans gatherings of 50 people or more. It shows what happens when only 25% of people are moving around. The rate of transmission slows significantly.
Simulation 4. This is where you and me come in, the public. If we stay at home, stop visiting friends, limit grocery store visits and self isolate effectively we will see something like this. The simulation shows what would happen if 7 out of 8 people or 87.5% of the population follow guidelines.
These government measures in conjunction with the public complying with social distancing policy will be the difference between Canada dealing with the insane growth Italy is experiencing or the tapering-off that South Korea is seeing now.